what about the trolls?
what about the trolls?
putin's informational assets post prigozhin coup
Welcome to naptime notes.
A few weeks ago Substack sent me an email reminding me that I hadn’t sent a newsletter in three months. Yes, I know, thanks. I’ve been too busy suing Fox News and working and parenting my now-toddler to write a gratis newsletter just because this platform wants to leech my engagement metrics.
But I do want to write. It feels perverse that I somehow found the motivation to send this newsletter weekly from 2015-2017, before newsletters were really a thing, before I had published my books, when I only had about 200 subscribers here and a couple hundred more Twitter followers. But it makes a lot of sense beyond that; I had a lot more time back then, and a lot fewer hangups.
In the present, things are becoming incrementally less overwhelming. With the Fox suit filed, I don’t need to do much for the time being but let the legal process play out. I’ve prevailed in two cases against my stalker. Motherhood is becoming less all-consuming. As much as one can achieve normalcy in the shifting sands of parenting and living as a public enemy in America, I feel like I’m getting there. Enter this newsletter.
I won’t lie. I do not yet have the time or the mental energy to write you a perfect essay every week. When you’re writing in a few stolen minutes before your kid barks himself awake it’s damn near impossible to get to that beautiful flow space where your brain gets out of your fingers’ way and exactly the right words follow. There will probably be typos and split infinitives. I can’t promise you incisive insight, though I might stumble on it occasionally. There is nothing like parenthood to remind you how little you know. There might be more questions than answers in these posts.
So, I apologize in advance, but I’m not sorry. If you want something closer to perfection, read one of my books or other publications. There are loads of people behind them to ensure who they’re polished and shiny. This is just me and my keyboard, writing you notes at naptime.
What about the trolls?
Putin’s Informational Assets Post-Prigozhin Coup
Last weekend, Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, the mercenaries responsible for atrocities from the Central African Republic to Ukraine, launched and then aborted a coup attempt. I won’t give you a play-by-play of what happened—I am not a newswire or a military analyst and others have done it better—but I do think it’s worth a little discussion of Prigozhin’s other industry. (Not the catering business; I have read enough bad analogies about “Jose Andres marching on Canada” for a lifetime.)
For a time, Prigozhin was most famous in the West for his control over the infamous Russian Internet Research Agency (IRA) or “troll factory” of 2016 Presidential Election fame. As I explained in How to Lose the Information War, the IRA cut its teeth early in the Ukraine conflict, testing out tactics in 2013 and 2014 at would later be deployed in America and beyond. As the world—and in particular, the social media platforms—woke up to the threat of online disinformation, the tactics that the IRA was known for, like the armies of fake profiles claiming to be Americans with very strong political views, were no longer as effective. Prigozhin’s trolls dabbled in other disinformation and influence operations, including an attempt to recruit progressive American journalists to write articles critical of the U.S. government. In 2019 Prigozhin organized all of his informational assets—around 400 in total, according to the Dossier Center—as the “Patriot Media Group.”
When Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Patriot Media found its calling: leading “Cyber Front Z,” an online campaign that bumbled around the internet in an attempt to give the guise of grassroots support for the war in the early days. Prigozhin had been notoriously cagey about his connections to the troll factories in the past, but earlier this year admitted he had launched the Cyber Front effort in response to what he called anti-Russian propaganda from the West.
What, then, of the troll empire after the coup? Russian outlet Bumaga reports:
On June 24, during Prigozhin’s armed rebellion, Russia’s federal censor blocked the websites and social media accounts of the publications that comprise the Patriot Media Group on the grounds that these outlets were “spreading incitements to join an armed rebellion.” That same day, the authorities raided the offices of several “newsrooms” under Prigozhin’s control.
Journalists at Bumaga have learned that the websites are still blocked, but the largest outlet in Prigozhin’s pocket — RIA FAN — already has a backup site up and running. It turns out that the publication anticipated its confrontation with the federal censor at least a month ago and registered the domain riafan.org on May 18, 2023.
And late this week, news broke that Prigozhin had reportedly dissolved Patriot Media entirely. Even before this, I had been wondering what the Russian information war would look like with its main non-governmental vector out of favor. Now, it seems like these operations are really spinning down, at least on paper. There are a few things to keep in mind.
First, Prigozhin’s assets have never been the most effective of Russian operations. I have long described them as “throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks.” They’ve found a few particularly adhesive bits, but they’ve also ended up with a lot of the pasta on the floor. Russia’s more effective operations have always been housed in its intelligence services, where ties to both official and criminal hackers have allowed Moscow to use hack and leak operations to influence political discourse. So it’s not like the Kremlin’s information operations have been entirely kneecapped.
Second, as I noted above, the trolls’ original MO—fake accounts effectively spamming and shitposting around the internet—is not as effective on mainstream platforms anymore, and they’ve struggled to find a new niche. Patriot Media isn’t the crown jewel it was back in 2016.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, looking toward the 2024 election (which is way closer than I’m ready to come to terms with, ew.), Russia and America’s other adversaries don’t need to do much to drive discord here beyond amplifying what we’re already doing to ourselves. This is the easiest lift they’ve had heading into an electoral contest since online disinformation went mainstream. The resources that were directed to Prigozhin can easily be redirected to gently fan the flames of the already burning American dumpster fire. Even without Prigozhin’s troll farm, Putin has the most important element of a successful influence campaign already in hand: circumstance.
I had originally planned to cover an additional topic today, but appropriately, my kiddo woke up right as I finished the above. Thanks for reading this naptime note and let me know if there’s something else you’d like me to write about in future issues.
Recommended reading:
Charlie Warzel takes a look at Telegram, the digital battleground of Russia’s war in Ukraine (and, by extension, Prigozhin’s coup attempt).
Not Prigozhin-related, but I recently discovered I’ve been made a deepfake porn star without my consent, and I wrote about that experience and the digging I did on deepfake porn creator forums for The Atlantic. I also discussed it on PBS Newshour.
Big fan and appreciate anything you write. Keep your chin up and do your thing!